Blogs

Germany’s fiscal trilemma: why Europe could lose out

5 Mar 2018
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Region: 
EU/Eurozone

Sunday’s result of the SPD membership vote has been welcomed across Europe. Many, from Paris to Rome and Madrid, are relieved that the SPD will be part of the next government (and the FDP in opposition). What makes Social Democrats so attractive is their commitment to ‘more Europe’ and eurozone reform, and their openness to put additional German money on the table to achieve it. The prospect of greater risk sharing in the eurozone has helped lift the euro in recent months. The hope is that Europe will benefit from both, more German money and Germany’s reputation as a sound fiscal manager. A closer look at the grand coalition agreement however calls into question whether it can deliver both.

Yabuli: where Chinese businesses move and shake

Author: 
5 Mar 2018
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Region: 
Asia

Most Davos regulars will not know of the town of Yabuli, a remote town in northern China closer to Vladivostok than Beijing. But, having spent much of last week trekking to and from Yabuli, I have realised both towns have something in common. I was there to attend the annual China Entrepreneurs Forum (think the World Economic Forum but with no politicians or NGOs). Yabuli has less of the old-world charm of the Swiss Alps, it is located in the province of Heilongjiang (think industrial rust-belt rather than cuckoo clocks) but both are high-end ski resorts, a long drive from the nearest airport and both events are full of rather self-congratulatory chatter.

The illusion of managed divergence

Author: 
26 Feb 2018
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Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

The Institute for Government’s model of managed divergence for the UK and EU economies has been influential in shaping the UK government’s position. It’s an ingenious attempt to address some of the thorniest economic and political challenges presented by Brexit. But while it may provide a basis for the UK cabinet ministers to bridge their differences, it is unlikely to be acceptable to the EU, now or in the future.

When the regulator is a competitor

Author: 
13 Feb 2018
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Region: 
UK

Transport for London (TfL) is the city’s transport regulator, responsible for operating multiple modes of transport for 1.3bn passengers a year, such as the Tube, the Emirates Air Line and London’s 700 different red bus routes. In addition to this operational role, TfL has a legal duty to grant – and police – the licences of private hire operators, traditional taxis and their drivers.

The “cost” of Labour’s nationalisation agenda

Author: 
12 Feb 2018
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Region: 
UK

The nationalisation of several utilities and rail franchises is a key plank of the UK Labour Party’s policy platform. To the dismay of implicated business leaders, it is also relatively popular, according both to the 2017 general election result and to separate polling. But how much would it cost - is Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell right to claim, as he did in a speech this weekend, that it would be “cost free”? Answering this means teasing out a number of related but distinct issues.

Outsourcers' struggles in the UK are an opportunity for the mid-market

Author: 
1 Feb 2018
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Region: 
UK

Capita’s profit warning is yet another sign of the growing fragility of the large, generalist outsourcing sector in the UK. That no bail-out was forthcoming for Carillion showed that such firms are not too big to fail. Indeed, the question seems to be whether they are too big to survive. This should imply significant opportunities for smaller, specialist firms, and therefore for investors, considering the raft of non-core asset sales the big outsourcers will undoubtedly be rushing into this year. There are, however, some considerations to be taken into account before jumping into the world of outsourced public services.

Fear and loathing in data protection

Author: 
25 Jan 2018
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Region: 
EU/Eurozone

All eyes in the tech community in Europe and beyond are fixed on 25th May 2018 when the EU’s General Data Protection Agreement (GDPR) finally enters into force. But many are misunderstanding what is driving the agenda here - focusing on the apparent loathing of big tech in Brussels when, in truth, the European Commission is driven more by fear of failure.

Is Poland’s government reshuffle an olive branch to Brussels?

12 Jan 2018
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Region: 
EU/Eurozone

Just under a month following his first attendance before the European Council, Poland’s new Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, has piqued Brussels’ interest in his young premiership with a major cabinet reshuffle. The move targets the most hard-line, nationalist ministers with portfolios core to the EU’s agenda: defence, foreign affairs, digital and the environment. The timing of this announcement – just before Morawiecki's meeting with Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and vice-president Frans Timmermans – has been labelled by some as a canny attempt to appease Brussels. Should the reshuffle be interpreted in such a binary way?

The political battle for consumers in the UK

Author: 
5 Jan 2018
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Region: 
UK

For some time now, the two main political parties in the UK have been battling for the same group of voters who feel disenfranchised, left behind and have faced what some have dubbed the ‘lost decade’ of stagnant wage increases. Since the general election, however, this battle has intensified, and it is now the case that more weight is being given by both parties to policies with a clear retail value.