Brexit

The British exit of the European Union is the most significant economic demerger between major economies since the Second World War and much about the forthcoming process of transitioning out of the EU has no precedent. But we know already that both the UK and the EU will be significantly changed by what is about to unfold.

Global Counsel has been helping clients prepare for a possible Brexit over the past two years. Our team of former Whitehall and Brussels policymakers and sectoral specialists, based at our offices in Brussels and London, enable us to help clients navigate the politics, policy and commercial implications of Brexit. Contact us to find out how we can help your organisation.

Global Counsel Brexit dashboard Q3 2018

More than two years on from the vote – and with just six months before the UK leaves the EU – we are taking the macro pulse of the UK economy, using a balanced set of 15 indicators. We are not attempting to isolate the impact of Brexit from all the other factors affecting the economy, as that is near impossible. Instead, we are providing a health check, to see where the economy is faring better or worse, compared to the years before the vote. Full details of the data and findings across five indicators in the categories of Consumers, Industry, People, Investment and Services can be viewed and downloaded here


 

Analysis & Blogs

PODCAST: Brexit and political risk for US investors

8 Mar 2019

UK: Global Counsel Senior Director Stephen Adams and Chief Economist Gregor Irwin discuss US investors' attitudes to Brexit, looking at challenges and opportunities for US investors in a post-Brexit UK, following Gregor's recent trip to North America.

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Corbyn, May and Brexit maths: division or addition?

7 Feb 2019

We’ve now seen several votes in the House of Commons which are revealing about the appetite for rebellion on Brexit. Three stand out: the “meaningful vote” on January 15th; and the votes on the Brady and Cooper amendments two weeks later.

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Can the UK parliament take control of Brexit?

15 Jan 2019

As Brexit reaches a critical point, the UK parliament and the UK government seem poised to start a high-stakes battle over the future of the UK’s constitution. Parliament is set to reject the prime minister’s negotiated treaty and strongly opposes the idea of exiting the EU without a negotiated...

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Might the UK's investor visa end in tiers?

7 Dec 2018

The immigration debate in the UK has traditionally focused on the lower end of the labour market. The movement of large numbers of workers from across Europe and from further afield to take up roles in the UK economy captures attention from the media and the public. But the announcement that the Home Office is suspending the less familiar Tier 1 (Investor) immigration route until further notice shows it isn’t just baristas, farmhands or electricians who could be affected by a post-Brexit clampdown.

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Brexit: the customs challenge

20 Sep 2018

The UK House of Lords EU External Affairs Sub-Committee has published the report of its inquiry into post-Brexit customs arrangements: Brexit: the customs challenge. The report reviews a wide range of important customs and trade facilitation issues linked to the UK’s exit from the EU....

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Global Counsel Brexit dashboard Q3 2018

30 Aug 2018

This is the third quarterly issue of the Global Counsel Brexit dashboard. More than two years on from the vote – and with just six months before the UK leaves the EU – we are taking the macro pulse of the UK economy, using a balanced set of 15 indicators. We are not attempting to isolate the...

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The analytics of football’s possible return home

9 Jul 2018

The twenty-three men of the England World Cup squad in Russia have done more to restore respect for Britain abroad than any number of ministerial visits, soft power exchanges and cultural tours. The irony of this turnaround taking place in Russia, at a low-point in Anglo-Russia relations, something which the death of a British citizen yesterday linked to the nerve agent attack in Salisbury is only likely to exacerbate, has not been lost on anyone in Moscow, Samara or Kaliningrad (I write having watched England’s last three matches in these cities.)

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UK Trade Remedy choices: from internal critic to unilateral disarmer?

6 Jul 2018

Over the next few months, the UK is likely to start setting out its detailed plans for the establishment of a UK trade remedies system after it has left the EU. Freed (at least in theory – watch the customs partnership debate) from the obligations of the EU system of which it has long been a critic, the UK will have an opportunity to adopt its own rulebook for the investigation of claims of dumping and subsidy in UK trading partners, and for designing measures to penalise unfairly traded goods.

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Global Counsel Brexit dashboard Q2 2018

11 Jun 2018

This is the second quarterly issue of the Global Counsel Brexit dashboard. Two years on from the vote – and with just nine months before the UK leaves the EU – we are taking the macro pulse of the UK economy each quarter, using a balanced set of 15 indicators. We are not attempting to isolate...

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The UK’s Brexit security gambit

17 May 2018

The UK and the EU have been staking out their positions on the future security partnership over the past week. This pillar of the Brexit negotiation matters in its own right; but it also has the potential to set precedents that could be important for the future economic partnership.

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Mutual recognition – mutual incomprehension?

12 Mar 2018

The UK government has finally started to flesh out what sort of future trade and regulatory relationship it wants to negotiate with the EU. Central to this are a revised set of market access and product standard recognition rights in the EU single market based on what the UK often calls ‘mutual recognition’. This suggestion has been rebuffed in a number of places and ways by the EU. Why is this?

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Global Counsel Brexit dashboard Q1 2018

12 Mar 2018

This is the first issue of the Global Counsel Brexit dashboard. 21 months on from the vote – and with just 12 months before the UK leaves the EU – we can now take the macro pulse of the economy, using a balanced set of 15 indicators, each quarter. We are not attempting to isolate the impact of...

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The illusion of managed divergence

26 Feb 2018

The Institute for Government’s model of managed divergence for the UK and EU economies has been influential in shaping the UK government’s position. It’s an ingenious attempt to address some of the thorniest economic and political challenges presented by Brexit. But while it may provide a basis for the UK cabinet ministers to bridge their differences, it is unlikely to be acceptable to the EU, now or in the future.

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The political battle for consumers in the UK

5 Jan 2018

For some time now, the two main political parties in the UK have been battling for the same group of voters who feel disenfranchised, left behind and have faced what some have dubbed the ‘lost decade’ of stagnant wage increases. Since the general election, however, this battle has intensified, and it is now the case that more weight is being given by both parties to policies with a clear retail value.

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The £60 billion economic impact of Brexit (and counting)

29 Nov 2017

One of the most contested issues, before and since the referendum on UK membership of the EU, has been the potential impact of Brexit on the UK economy. The exercise is almost as difficult now as it was before the referendum, because we still don’t know what Brexit will mean for the UK’s trading relationships, or the regulatory environment in Britain, two issues that will have a significant bearing on the long-term economic consequences.

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What does no deal mean?

30 Oct 2017

The baseline for the trade relationship after a no-deal Brexit would be WTO rules. In practice – and depending on the political atmosphere – there would at least be some enhancements to this baseline in the form of bilateral agreements between the EU and the UK on specific issues that are...

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The UK's relationship with Euratom: What next?

25 Oct 2017

As Global Counsel and Herbert Smith Freehills convene a discussion on the UK’s future relationship with Euratom, this paper provides an overview of the legal and political background. The paper also identifies some of the potential options for mitigating the impact on the UK. Lastly, the paper...

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Australia’s European opportunity

20 Oct 2017

While in Australia at the start of this month, one question that came up repeatedly was how Australia should approach its trade relationship with Europe. Australia is on the verge of launching a formal trade negotiation with the EU. This comes just as the UK is negotiating its exit from the EU, which is why Australia is also ‘scoping’ a future deal with Britain. Australia must therefore decide how to balance its interests between the bit of the EU where the economic relationship is strongest - the UK - and the other 27 states.

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Brexit Team

Stephen
Adams

Senior Director

Stephen is a Senior Director of Global Counsel. Stephen has more than 15 years of experience in European and British public policy and regulation, chiefly in the field of international economic policy, trade policy, cross-border financial services policy and European integration.

Gregor
Irwin

Chief Economist

Gregor leads on economic analysis at Global Counsel. Gregor has over 20 years of experience working on international economic and political issues in the public and private sectors and as an academic.

Geoffrey
Norris

Senior Adviser

Geoffrey is GC’s lead consultant on business and industrial policymaking, with a particular focus on energy. 

Leo
Ringer

Head of UK

Leo leads Global Counsel’s work in the UK from its office in London. Leo has spent most of the last decade advising corporates, investors and politicians on business-related public policy in the UK.

Tom
White

Head of Europe

Tom runs Global Counsel’s Europe team from its office in Brussels. Tom has overall responsibility for Global Counsel’s work with the EU institutions and governments in the EU27.

Daniel
Capparelli

Practice Lead, Trade
Email: 

Daniel is Global Counsel’s trade policy Practice Lead. Daniel has worked on cross-border policy issues for over a decade in a wide range of sectors, including financial services, manufacturing and agriculture.

Conan
D'Arcy

Practice Lead, TMT

Conan leads Global Counsel’s TMT practice. Conan has worked both in Brussels and Whitehall, as a political and legislative adviser.

Matthew
Duhan

Practice Lead, Energy

Matthew is Global Counsel’s Practice Lead for energy. At Global Counsel, Matthew leads teams advising clients on understanding the impact of changing EU and UK energy and climate change policy and regulation on their businesses.

Thomas
Gratowski

Practice Lead, Global Macro
Email: 

Thomas is a Practice Lead in Global Counsel’s macro team. He joined Global Counsel from the World Bank, where he was a consultant, focusing on country strategy in the Middle East and North Africa.

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